Posted by: rockster11 | December 3, 2010

Here we go.. Clipper number 1 of the 2010-2011 season

Before I get started in explaining this clipper I want to point out something.. Im not here to toot my own horn, well, yes I am :P… Check out my clipper forecast down below in Gamble’s Ramble’s Edition 2, the final winter forecast… This clipper is taking the exact path I highlighted as a popular track this year.  This will not be the last clipper we see and I believe it is the start of a VERY ACTIVE December…

A brief rundown on clipper systems… They are their own system, much much different from the bigger southern storms that we are used to seeing from the south that move on up into our area.. No, clippers dive down from Canada and they usually have their own limited moisture supply to work with.. Most clippers dump anywhere from 1-6 inches of snow.. occasionally you will get that RARE storm that tops 8-10 but for Indiana, this is not one of them… The track of this system has been wobbling a bit but I do believe the best snows will indeed fall in the Central Indiana area and perhaps slightly north.. You’ve heard the saying before that track means everything, well with Clippers it’s no different.. A shift 50 miles either way changes these numbers quite a bit… Another thing that makes clippers kind of sneaky at times is that they usually pull in much colder Canadian air with them.. This changes the liquid to Crystal ratio’s from the usual 10:1 (Ten inches of snow is the equivalent of one inch of rain) to usually much higher numbers.. I have seen snow ratios hit 30:1 before, however for this storm I am projecting a snow ratio of 12:1 which again means 12″ of snow for every 1 inch of rain..

Early moisture numbers coming in range from .10 to .30″ of liquid.. using standard ten to one ratios that would yield 1-3″ of snow with isolated  spots seeing 4-5″ Now if we throw in the aforementioned higher ratios then we could get a fluffier snow which would increase accumulation amounts.. ALSO, Clippers are notorious for sneaking in a heavier band of snow within the system itself and where that heavier band sets up is impossible to determine until the actual event is here… For instance, Noblesville might get 1 inch of snow but Kokomo may receive 4″.. the Lines can sometimes be that tight… So keep that in mind as you watch the flakes fly tomorrow..

Instead of drawing a painted Map I thought i would zoom in on cities around the state and give possible accumulation numbers… Again, these numbers are NOT set in stone, if this clipper somehow picks up more moisture than you will all be scratching your heads and most likely sending me hate mail….. 😉 Here are my thoughts:

  1. Noblesville… 3.0″
  2. Kokomo… 3.1″
  3. Indianapolis…. 3.2″
  4. Marion….. 2.9″
  5. Martinsville….. 3.1″
  6. Greensburg….. 2.2″
  7. Tipton……. 2.7″
  8. Columbus (IN)…..2.8″
  9. Lafayette…… 3.3″
  10. Ft Wayne…… 2.2″ (does not include lake effect that they may receive as winds shift)
  11. Seymour….. 2.4″
  12. Louisville….. 1.7″
  13. New Castle 2.9″

That is all I have for now… Most local meteo’s are going the safe route with the 2-4″ call… That is most likely okay, but I want to get it one step higher, I want to see how close or how badly I miss certain cities.. Only time will tell.. Enjoy the first snow everyone!!

Oh one more thing… The middle of December right around Christmas time looks VERY active.. I believe we are going to be seeing quite a bit of activity somewhere in the area during this time frame…. December came in cold and it’s STAYING cold… 😉

Matt OUT

  

 

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Responses

  1. I came across this blog randomly, and I have to say it is pretty cool. I think you got most of those predictions pretty close. Keep it up.


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