Posted by: rockster11 | October 13, 2010

Gamble’s Rambles Edition #2. The FINAL winter forecast.

Well here we go.. This is my final winter outlook.. First a couple of disclaimers. 1. I am NOT a professional meteorlogist, yes I have been studying meteorolgy as a hobby for 15+ years but I have no degree’s or anything.. 2. I have went over countless scenarios for this winter and spent tons of time studying analogs from previous La Nina winters, conversing with others in the area about their thoughts, and just overall trying to figure out how this winter is going to go… So, without further ado, lets dive into it shall we?

There is some changes to this forecast.. I did NOT expect La Nina to make it to the strong status that it has but La Nina has completely taken over the Pacific ocean and it is going to have drastic impacts on our winter weather.. I will go over what La Nina is again for the new comers.. La Nina, simply put, is the opposite of El Nino. La Nina is a abnormal COOLING of the Eastern Equatorial Pacific waters.. This cooling  completely changes storm tracks, jet stream patterns and ridge setups.. We have seen the affects of La Nina already this year with the horrible drought that My area in Indiana is experiencing, but behold, the pattern IS going to change for the winter!!! If you have noticed, places like Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Parts of Illinois, North and South Dakota and much of the plains have been doing fine with precip, while areas such as Indiana, Ohio and points south are in drought or VERY dry conditions… This is a classic Nina setup and the strength of the Nina has made things much much worse.. If you remember the early Heavy and flooding rains, then you could appreciate NINA that much more.. During that time we were in a transition phase out of El Nino and into a neutral status, which is what allowed the Soaking conditions to take place early on.. Then, Nina hit and the brown yards are proof that she is mean this year.I do have to admit that My knowledge on Nina’s and how they completely affect the weather conditions is not completly there but most professional forecasters are calling for the Nina to start weakening after the first of the new year.. Lets look at the current strength of this Nina shall we??: ***Note***this was the reading as of August 30th..

For those of you that don’t understand what your seeing.. Look at the departure from normal temps (blue) area.. As you can see it is VERY intense…

Now, lets get into what I think will transpire in the United States this year.. 🙂 I said it last post and I will say it again, if you live in the midwest you are going to see  basically the kitchen sink thrown at you… By that I mean every form of precip is in play this year.. Rain, Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, EVERYTHING… Excuse me while I play a favorite state but I will use Indiana as an example.. Indiana, in my opinion is going to dwarf ANY wrestling event in terms of Battle’s Royal this year.. This is going to be a headache for our on air meteorlogical personality’s, amatuer storm followers AND for the NWS offices.. I am not confident that Canada will provide enough cold blasts to dip the main jet to keep our predominant precipitation as snow.. We will also be dealing with a very strong southeast ridge all winter that will most likely be eating at every chance to creep up into our state and give us slop storms.. I’m really interested in November and December as I think we will go cold FAST in November…The AO and NAO indexes are already pointing to that possiblity.. I also want to reiterate that the temperature swings this year are going to be intense.. 20’s one day, 50’s the next….. We are that close to both sides of the spectrum.. Let me now post what I think will happen in terms of Temps from Nov-March

Clippers: Clippers originate in Alberata, hence the term Alberta clipper. They are storms of their own and usually race fast to the southeast dumping snow along their western edge.. These types of storms usually don’t yield much snowfall due to a lack of moisture availability but they can sometimes surprise with amounts up to 6 inches.. But generally these storms dump from anywhere between 1-5 inch snowfall amounts, with the abnormal 6+ amount possible in certain situations.. Here is my thoughts on what track the clippers this year will take, remember clippers are different than their bigger southern storm brothers as they keep their snowfall tight and compacted and around the Low itself… They almost always produce snow because of the northwest colder winds that accompany them as they dive southeast/east

Next on to the main storm tracks from the south and west… When ample gulf moisture is available these are the storms that can give the big snows/ice/rain and sleet… I am sorry to say to my Indiana snow geese that I do believe Indiana is going to be a very popular Low pressure track for this year… I just cannot see the jet dipping much further south into places like Kentucky with such a strong ridge in place to the south.. that, in my opinion will push most Low pressure centers up through Central and southern Indiana, putting places like Illinois and detroit in the best snow belts.. Don’t get me wrong, Indiana will luck out at some point this year with a nice storm track through central Kentucky and Central Ohio (A perfect snow heavy snow setup for Central Indiana) but the predominant track in my opinion will be right smack dab overhead of us… There will also be a cross country track that I think might occur a few times, but the two tracks that I have going through Indiana and through Illinois are the main tracks that I expect to take place.. Of course there will be the threat of Noreasters as well with an Eastern track, but the threat is MUCH MUCH lower this year than last, again, due to the strong ridge in the south that will be in place… Here is the track of Lows that I expect to see this year.. If you like snow and you live in Central Indiana, you want to see a low pressure track right through central/southern Kentucky..

Okay here we go… Time to talk snowfall amounts and probablities.. I am LOWERING my original forecasted snow amount for the Indianapolis National Weather Service to 29″-31″ I cannot jump on the snow wagon with such uncertainty of how many arctic cold blasts we get, tracks of storms that I don’t think favor our area, and the afformentioned southern ridge that i think will play absolute havoc with our weather. I am a snow lover but I truly believe we will be stuck in a wedge of slop this winter that will just frustrate alot of snow lovers.. Now, if colder air is able to infiltrate further south and we get favorable tracks, this will all change and I’ll admit to being wrong (something Im used to doing) but at this time I do not see it….. I am still sticking strong to areas like Chicago, South Bend, Detroit, Minneapolis, Iowa City, and other places surrounding that immediate area getting a very snowy winter… I do believe that the canadian blasts will make it far enough down to favor these cities and I really think these places benefit the most from this winter. Now don’t get me wrong, those areas will most likely see a few mixed storms, but I truly believe snow will be the predominant precip type for those areas and it will DEFINTELY be the predominant type for areas from Southern South dakota, southern Minnesota, central Michigan and points north…. So that is staying put from my original forecast that I put out for them… Bottom line is, if you live in any of those cities I mentioned, get ready.. i still believe this is your year.. 🙂 Here is my map of where I expect snowfall rates and slop rates…

That is all I have for now… Remember, this winter is going to be FULL of ups and downs… Temps will flucuate and it could be snowing 10 miles down the road and raining the next 10 miles down further south… I will be on everything this winter and I look forward to hoping I’m wrong, as I LOVE LOVE LOVE LOVE snow!!! I leave you now with a personal saying that I live by when it comes to the weather…… Uh ummm mmm “Everyone on this earth has to deal with the weather, so you might as well learn a little bit about it”.

 

Matt OUT. 🙂

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Responses

  1. what do you think about snow totals for toronto ontario canada and snow total maps

  2. nice i agree


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