Posted by: rockster11 | October 5, 2011

Winter 2011-2012 Mother Nature turns Naaaaasty

Hello everyone!!! It is that time again.. It’s the time when kid’s wonder if they will have school, it’s the time when parents will wonder if snow or ice will force them to make decisions on sporting events, it’s that time again when everyone wonders how much their heating bills will be….. yes, it is approaching that time again…. Winter Time!!! Before I get into what I “think” will happen I need to make a few things clear.

1. I have taken no schooling for meterology, Ever since I was 15 I have been studying the field, but unfortunately I missed the train and it passed me by. I have been blessed beyond belief to have learned what I have, but believe me there is still a TON of info that I need to learn.

2. Every winter forecast you will see is nothing more than a guess. Although we have numerous tools at our disposal to “help” us in determining what will happen down the road, nothing is ever guaranteed.. So if you see a winter forecast saying that this is what WILL HAPPEN you can chuck it out in the garbage… Nobody knows. ūüôā

So without further delay, let’s get started shall we!!?

Canada: I thought I would start this years forecast with a briefing on our neighbors to the north…. Without Canada, there would be no hoosier winter. Without Canada the tremendous push of multiple troughs of colder air would not take place… Without Canada Winter would be pretty boring as we would be stuck in a constant state of dull, non exciting weather patterns.. Canada not only produces our Cold air source, but it also produces what I believe will be the biggest story of this winter.. Alberta Clippers.. I will get into Clippers much later in this entry lets focus on what is “most likely” going to drive our weather this year shall we??

LA NINA: Well she is back for the second year in a row…. La Nina.. To summarize what La-Nina truly is by defintion.. A cooling of -1 degree or more below average of the western Equatorial Pacific.. This cooling throws our weather patterns for a loop… Storm’s shift track, Heavy snow’s belt certain areas, Major cold spells are usually accompianed by them. But, the most important fact to know about LA Nina is she NEVER acts the same.. For this reason I do not believe in using analog maps like most other forecaster’s do… Yes, Analog maps can provide clues as to what may happen in a particular La Nina phase but I am here to tell you Nobody can with 100% certainty tell you what a particular LA Nina year will hold…. Right now I expect a Weak to moderate La Nina winter but be forewarned, last year we catapulted into strong territory and you all saw what Feburary brought.. Major snows to our region.. Nobody got this right that I can recall, including yours truly.. It was a complete 180 of what most forecasters were calling for.. Having said that here is the Current state of our La Nina, as provided by the CPC

Southern and Cross Country cutter Storm Tracks: This is going to be a toughy this year folks… First simple logic… You need cold air for snow, right?? Right.. Well what happens when Major blasts of arctic air come barreling down into the Lower 48, you then get a little term called Suppression… Suppression is, simply put what it sounds like… Southern Storm’s try to ride into the midwest but they cannot penetrate the colder air mass and thus it suppresses them to our east… This is why I am SO HIGH on Clippers this year.. If as much cold air filters down into our area as I think, then we are going to see lots of southern branch storms suppressed and scooted off to our east.. Let’s take a gander at how suppression works..

As you can see from the map Southern Storms must be able to penetrate into a more steady unfrigid airmass to hammer this area with heavier snows…. I’m not saying every southern storm this year will end up this way, but if it gets as cold as I think in December and January you can wave bye bye to our biggest snow producers… Our Southern Systems… Southern Systems produce the biggest snows because of 2 reasons…. 1. They tap into the gulf of Mexico and transport all of the moisture they pick up into our area… The biggest snows in history have been southern oriented. 2. Southern Storms tend to move more slowly than cross country cutters and clippers.. The math on this one is pretty easy, get a slower moving storm, get a MUCH MUCH heavier snowfall.. Lets now look at the PERFECT storm track for central Indiana to recieve the heaviest snows..

Lets now look at A perfect Southern storm scenario for this area…. (generally our BIGGEST snow producers)

As you can see you need to be about 200-300 miles to the northwest of the center of the lowest pressure to get into the biggest snows… This is because all Low pressure systems rotate in a counterclockwise direction.. they pick up moisture and disperse it away from the center of the low or the dreaded “dry slot” and, depending on how big the system truly is, dump copious amounts of snow or ice into winter lover’s backyards.. ūüôā I still think we see 4-5 good Southern systems this year but again, come December and January that could ALL change as canada really shows us what she is made of and sends brutal amounts of cold air into the midwest and possibly even the south at times… I will be on every system this year that affects this region and you will see alot of these types of maps made up by me on where I’m thinking the heaviest snows will fall… I caution you, when you hear our local meteorlogical personalitys say a track of 25 miles south or north of the actual low can mean everything, THEY MEAN IT.. It is CRUCIAL for a snow lover to stay on the northwest section of a snowstorm for on the southeast section lies the dreaded………. Warm Air Advection.. A weather phenomenon that can make the toughest snow lover hate rain, while a neighbor 50 miles to their northwest gets dumped on with 10+ inches of powder…. remembering that every system rotates counterclockwise,¬†Lets now look at how warm air advection works…….

Having explained that… Here is MY projected “popular” low pressure tracks for the 2011-2012 Winter Season… remember, these are projected, we will almost certainly see a southern system that plays nice and dumps a good snow on this area..

ALBERTA CLIPPERS.. Early on in September I started noticing something.. canada was being very finicky and sending very early season cold blast’s down our way.. these trough’s as they are called started getting my attention because if they continue, this is the PERFECT scenario for Central Indiana to receive great clipper snows….. Alberta clippers are their own system that originate in Canada.. They dive down with a limited moisture supply and usually produce anwhere from a 1-4″ snowfall, “on average”. This year, In my opinion is a WHOLE different beast…. If we get the shots of colder air that I believe we will get, then our clippers will have major liquid to chrystal ratios to work with… What I mean is this…. Every 1 inch of¬†rain equals 10 inches of snow.. However if you have temps hovering in the teens and the lower 20’s these ratios jump dramatically to anywhere from 20-30:1… Now, most clippers will not have an inch of liquid equvilant to work with as most of the time their moisture supply to the gulf is cut off, but these little suckers can pack quite a punch and I really believe we will get HALF¬† of the totals I am calling for from these clippers….. Having said that here are the areas that I believe will be pounded by clippers… Keep in mind Clippers usually are at their most frequent in December and January, AND unlike their southern and cross country cousin storms they DO penetrate into the coldest of air masses…. Needless to say I am VERY excited about the Clipper Train this year…..

Temperatures: I truly hope you have all saved up your pennies for heating bills this year, because like others I too am forecasting a brutally cold winter.. telleconnections (something I will get into as the winter evloves) seem to support a Nation Divided (hence the title of this forecast) in the Temperature category… In short, I believe Canada is going to truly show us what she is made of this year as she constantly throws us cold air.. Now don’t get me wrong I do not think we will end up Brutally cold ALL winter, but when we do get these cold blasts they will hit fast and they will hit HARD… In fact, I am projecting in January that we will see records in jeapordy for the lowest high temperature in the upper midwest, and even possibly here… Without further ado here is my projected temperature map: A quick note about the temperature map… The northeast has shown no love to me in particular “forum’s” so I will repay them the favor here and show them no love.. However, for my friends in Virginia and New Jersey, I have included you in my projections.. ūüôā

Now, the big enchilada…. My snowfall projections for the 2011-2012 season: It is now time for the moment everyone has been waiting for…. Well maybe not everyone, but me for sure…. SNOWFALL!!!! Although Ice storms are ALWAYS a possibility anywhere at anytime during the winter, I have decided to cut back my explaining on them as I just don’t currently see many icestorms affecting this area.. I have drastically moved the icestorm threat south as much larger punches of canadian air should have no problem making it as far south as places like northern Alabama, possibly even Florida “at limited times”. Remember what I have said, If you are a snow lover then you do NOT want to see temps in the teens for any extended amount of time.. Unless we have a healthy clipper moving our way, this will kill our snowfall total’s and make us miserable at the same time as we scramble to pay our heating bills… The perfect snow temperature In my opinion for our southern systems is around 23-29 degrees.. this gives us a margin of saftey and ensures we wont have warm air advection to deal with that is ejected from the south.. As the winter goes on and each individual storm develops I will provide a detailed account of what I think will transpire concerning snow/ice/sleet and………… ugh.. rain (rain should be illegal during the winter.. Its just not right lol :P) Having said all of that here is my Snowfall projections for the entire winter…

So there you have it…. I am projecting 35-38″ of snow at the Indy NWS office…. Which would be ABOVE Average….

I hope you have enjoyed this amatuer’s explanation of what he thinks is going to transpire…. yes, I know alot of winter forecast’s look like mine but that is because we are ALL looking at the same data.. What you have to remember is this: Every winter outlook is nothing more than a GUESS.. Only mother nature herself knows what will happen, and she will be the determining factor on what actually plays out.. Anyone that claims they “know” what will happen should be taken with a grain of salt and quite frankly, laughed at…I wanted to keep things simple for people who happen to stumble across this blog online or my facebook weather page fans… While I am still learning, you are all learning along with me and if I can help someone understand a little bit more about the weather, then that would thrill me… I will close with my “patented” saying:

“EVERYONE HAS TO DEAL WITH THE WEATHER, SO YOU MIGHT AS WELL LEARN A LITTLE BIT ABOUT IT” ūüėČ

See you all on the battle fields this winter… She is going to be fun!!!

Matt OUT…

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Posted by: rockster11 | December 3, 2010

Here we go.. Clipper number 1 of the 2010-2011 season

Before I get started in explaining this clipper I want to point out something.. Im not here to toot my own horn, well, yes I am :P… Check out my clipper forecast down below in Gamble’s Ramble’s Edition 2, the final winter forecast… This clipper is taking the exact path I highlighted as a popular track this year.¬†¬†This will not be the last clipper we see and I believe it is the start of a VERY ACTIVE December…

A brief rundown on clipper systems… They are their own system, much much¬†different from the bigger southern storms that we are used to seeing from the south that move on up into our area.. No, clippers dive down from Canada and they usually have their own limited moisture supply to work with.. Most clippers dump anywhere from 1-6 inches of snow.. occasionally you will get that RARE storm that tops 8-10 but for Indiana, this is not one of them… The track of this system has been wobbling a bit but I do believe the best snows will indeed fall in the Central Indiana area and perhaps slightly north.. You’ve heard the saying before that track means everything, well with Clippers it’s no different.. A shift 50 miles either way changes these numbers quite a bit… Another thing that makes clippers kind of sneaky at times is that they usually pull in much colder Canadian¬†air with them.. This changes the liquid to Crystal¬†ratio’s from the usual 10:1 (Ten inches of snow is the equivalent of one inch of rain) to usually much higher numbers.. I have seen snow ratios hit 30:1 before, however for this storm I am projecting a snow ratio of 12:1 which again means 12″ of snow for every 1 inch of rain..

Early moisture numbers coming¬†in range from .10 to .30″ of liquid.. using standard ten to one ratios that would yield 1-3″ of snow with isolated¬† spots seeing 4-5″ Now if we throw in the aforementioned¬†higher ratios then¬†we could get a fluffier snow which would increase accumulation amounts.. ALSO,¬†Clippers are notorious for sneaking in a heavier band of snow within the system itself and where that heavier band sets up is impossible to determine until the actual event is here… For instance, Noblesville might get 1 inch of snow but Kokomo may receive¬†4″.. the Lines can sometimes be that tight… So keep that in mind as you watch the flakes fly tomorrow..

Instead of drawing a painted Map I thought i would zoom in on cities around the state and give possible accumulation numbers… Again, these numbers are NOT set in stone, if this clipper somehow picks up more moisture than you will all be scratching your heads and most likely sending me hate mail….. ūüėČ Here are my thoughts:

  1. Noblesville… 3.0″
  2. Kokomo… 3.1″
  3. Indianapolis…. 3.2″
  4. Marion….. 2.9″
  5. Martinsville….. 3.1″
  6. Greensburg….. 2.2″
  7. Tipton……. 2.7″
  8. Columbus (IN)…..2.8″
  9. Lafayette…… 3.3″
  10. Ft Wayne…… 2.2″ (does not include lake effect that they may receive as winds shift)
  11. Seymour….. 2.4″
  12. Louisville….. 1.7″
  13. New Castle 2.9″

That is all I have for now… Most local meteo’s are going the safe route with the 2-4″ call… That is most likely okay, but I want to get it one step higher, I want to see how close or how badly I miss certain cities.. Only time will tell.. Enjoy the first snow everyone!!

Oh one more thing… The middle of December right around Christmas time looks VERY active.. I believe we are going to be seeing quite a bit of activity somewhere in the area during this time frame…. December came in cold and it’s STAYING cold… ūüėČ

Matt OUT

  

 

Posted by: rockster11 | October 13, 2010

Gamble’s Rambles Edition #2. The FINAL winter forecast.

Well here we go.. This is my final winter outlook.. First a couple of disclaimers. 1. I am NOT a professional meteorlogist, yes I have been studying meteorolgy as a hobby for 15+ years but I have no degree’s or anything.. 2. I have went over countless scenarios for this winter and spent tons of time studying analogs from previous La Nina winters, conversing with others in the area about their thoughts, and just overall trying to figure out how this winter is going to go… So, without further ado, lets dive into it shall we?

There is some changes to this forecast.. I did NOT expect La Nina to make it to the strong status that it has but La Nina has completely taken over the Pacific ocean and it is going to have drastic impacts on our winter weather.. I will go over what La Nina is again for the new comers.. La Nina, simply put, is the opposite of El Nino. La Nina is a abnormal COOLING of the Eastern Equatorial Pacific waters.. This cooling¬† completely changes storm tracks, jet stream patterns and ridge setups.. We have seen the affects of La Nina already this year with the horrible drought that My area in Indiana is experiencing, but behold, the pattern IS going to change for the winter!!! If you have noticed, places like Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Parts of Illinois, North and South Dakota and much of the plains have been doing fine with precip, while areas such as Indiana, Ohio and points south are in drought or VERY dry conditions… This is a classic Nina setup and the strength of the Nina has made things much much worse..¬†If you remember the early Heavy and flooding rains, then you could appreciate NINA that much more.. During that time we were in a transition phase out of El Nino and into a neutral status, which is what allowed the Soaking conditions to take place early on.. Then, Nina hit and the brown yards are proof that she is mean this year.I do have to admit that¬†My knowledge on Nina’s and how they completely affect the weather conditions is not completly there but most professional forecasters are calling for the Nina to start weakening after the first of the new year.. Lets look at the current strength of this Nina shall we??: ***Note***this was the reading as of August 30th..

For those of you that don’t understand what your seeing.. Look at the departure from normal temps (blue) area.. As you can see it is VERY intense…

Now, lets get into what I think will transpire in the United States this year.. ūüôā I said it last post and I will say it again, if you live in the midwest you are going to see¬† basically the kitchen sink thrown at you… By that I mean every form of precip is in play this year.. Rain, Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, EVERYTHING… Excuse me while I play a favorite state but I will use Indiana as an example.. Indiana, in my opinion is going to dwarf ANY wrestling event in terms of Battle’s Royal¬†this year.. This is going to be a headache for our on air meteorlogical¬†personality’s, amatuer storm followers AND for the¬†NWS offices.. I am not confident that Canada will provide enough cold blasts to dip the main jet to keep our predominant precipitation as snow.. We will also be dealing with a very strong southeast ridge all winter that will most likely be eating at every chance to creep up into our state and give us slop storms.. I’m really interested in November and December as I think we will go cold FAST in November…The AO and NAO indexes are already pointing to that possiblity.. I also want to reiterate that the temperature swings this year are going to be intense.. 20’s one day, 50’s the next….. We are that close to both sides of the spectrum.. Let me now post what I think will happen in terms of Temps from Nov-March

Clippers: Clippers originate in Alberata, hence the term Alberta clipper. They are storms of their own and usually race fast to the southeast dumping snow along their western edge.. These types of storms usually don’t yield much snowfall due to a lack of moisture availability¬†but they can sometimes surprise with amounts up to 6 inches.. But generally these storms dump from anywhere between 1-5 inch snowfall amounts, with the abnormal 6+ amount possible in certain situations.. Here is my thoughts on what track the clippers this year will take, remember clippers are different than their bigger southern storm brothers as they keep their snowfall tight and compacted and around the Low itself… They almost always produce snow because of the northwest colder winds that accompany them as they dive southeast/east

Next on to the main storm tracks from the south and west… When ample gulf moisture is available these are the storms that can give the big snows/ice/rain and sleet… I am sorry to say to my Indiana snow geese that I do believe Indiana is going to be a very popular Low pressure track for this year… I just cannot see the jet dipping much further south into places like Kentucky with such a strong ridge in place to the south.. that, in my opinion will push most Low pressure centers up through Central and southern Indiana, putting places like Illinois and detroit in the best snow belts.. Don’t get me wrong, Indiana will luck out at some point this year with a nice storm track through central Kentucky and Central Ohio (A perfect snow heavy snow setup for Central Indiana) but the predominant track in my opinion will be right smack dab overhead of us… There will also be a cross country track that I think might occur a few times, but the two tracks that I have going through Indiana and through Illinois are the main tracks that I expect to take place.. Of course there will be the threat of Noreasters as well with an Eastern track, but the threat is MUCH MUCH lower this year than last, again, due to the strong ridge in the south that will be in place… Here is the track of Lows that I expect to see this year.. If you like snow and you live in Central Indiana, you want to see a low pressure track right through central/southern Kentucky..

Okay here we go… Time to talk snowfall amounts and probablities.. I am LOWERING my original forecasted snow amount for the¬†Indianapolis National Weather Service¬†to 29″-31″ I cannot jump on the snow wagon with such uncertainty of how many arctic cold blasts we get, tracks of storms that I don’t think favor our area, and the afformentioned southern ridge that i think will play absolute havoc with our weather. I am a snow lover but I truly believe we will be stuck in a wedge of slop this winter that will just frustrate alot of snow lovers.. Now, if colder air is able to infiltrate further south and we get favorable tracks, this will all change and I’ll admit to being wrong (something Im used to doing) but at this time I do not see it….. I am still sticking strong to areas like Chicago, South Bend, Detroit, Minneapolis, Iowa City, and other¬†places surrounding that immediate area getting a very snowy winter… I do believe that the canadian blasts will make it far enough down to favor these cities and I really think these places benefit the most from this winter. Now don’t get me wrong, those areas will most likely see a few mixed storms, but I truly believe snow will be the predominant precip type for those areas and it will DEFINTELY be the predominant type for areas from Southern South dakota, southern Minnesota, central Michigan and points north…. So that is staying put from my original forecast that I put out for them… Bottom line is, if you live in any of those cities I mentioned, get ready.. i still believe this is your year.. ūüôā Here is my map of where I expect snowfall rates and slop rates…

That is all I have for now… Remember, this winter is going to be FULL of ups and downs… Temps will flucuate and it could be snowing 10 miles down the road and raining the next 10 miles down further south… I will be on everything this winter and I look forward to hoping I’m wrong, as I LOVE LOVE LOVE LOVE snow!!! I leave you now with a personal saying that I live by when it comes to the weather…… Uh ummm mmm “Everyone on this earth has to deal with the weather, so you might as well learn a little bit about it”.

 

Matt OUT. ūüôā

Well here we go!! Yes it is only August 1st but I am so excited about the 2010-2011 Winter season that I wanted to get a “preliminary” winter forecast out to the good people of Indiana.. All in all last year I missed my snow total by 4 inches and I goofed February¬†up as you can see below, but December and especially January went exactly the way I thought they might… You have to remember that we got VERY lucky in February.. WE should not have gotten the amounts of big snows we did in that month because of the El Nino Pattern that we were in, so that was a very unorthodox month in terms of the atmospheric pattern..

This year is going to be an entirely different animal… I truly believe this will be a BIG and I mean BIG teeter totter type of year in the temperature department. I will get into that in a few moments. I also want to divulge that I am far from an expert.. I am just a typical guy doing something that completely interests me.. If I don’t know about a specific weather related item I will tell you and there is ALOT¬†I still don’t know and understand. Remember I have taken no schooling, this has all been learned on my own for the past 15 years.. I am still learning to read Teleconnections¬†like the Arctic Oscillation Index (AO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific North American Pattern (PNA) and the Antarctic oscillation (AAO)¬† and the Greenland Block… Every one of these phenomenon help to dictate our weather during the winter.. I really love going by the AO index.. I have found when it tanks into the Negative territory, then our temps are gonna take a dive. Likewise when it moves into Positive territory, our temps go up… You will really hear me preaching the gospel of the AO index this year, as I truly believe the index will be all over the place with our temp’s being the same way…

Last year we were in an El-Nino.. Simply put An El Nino is an abnormal warming of the¬†Central and Eastern¬†Pacific ocean.. This abnormal warming pushed our jet stream WELL south, which is basically (and Im¬†putting it simple terms here) a steering current of winds in a narrow corridor¬†that storm systems like to ride.. So in other words it is like a Big Brother giving its little brothers and sister storms systems a piggy back.. (Hey gotta keep it fun, I need you all to read the whole thing. :P)¬† The abnormal push of the JET to the south is why we saw snows in Texas and other southern areas that usually don’t get snow.. When the Jet moved south the Colder Canadian air was able to infiltrate right along with it….

This year is a whole different Beast in my opinion… We are currently, the last time I looked, in a very weak LA-NINA cycle..A La-Nina is the complete opposite of the El Nino.. It is an abnormal¬†COOLING of the¬†central/eastern Pacific waters… As a result of this abnormal cooling the Jet Stream is shoved much further north across sections of Indiana and Michigan.. This is EXACTLY why places like Wisconsin, Iowa¬†and Minnesota have been having such a rough severe weather season and it is why Rain has seemed to dominate our pattern every other day.. Storms are “piggy¬†backing” along the Jet. It is ALSO why we have been hotter, a Further North jet allows hotter and more moist air from the south to move right on in.. IT IS a classic weak La Nina Pattern!!!… The question is how strong of a Nina will we be in once winter comes?? I have seen talk of forecasters saying anywhere from neutral to Moderate.. I am going to go with a strong weak to a weak moderate Nina which in turn means this one thing…. Snow/Cold Rain/Ice and a lot of it in the midwest…. I am not going to go by month this year but rather by states in the immediate area, starting of course with our beloved INDIANA region..

Indiana/Illinois/Ohio/Michigan:¬†¬† Let us start with…….. of course… INDIANA.. I am going to put it up front, and I am going very bold here but I believe Indiana is going to be a big battleground for winter storms this year, I am really hesitant with this but I am going to stick with this number for now.. I believe Central/North Central¬†Indiana will see 36-42″¬† of snow this year and at least 1 1o”+ snowstorm.. which would put us in the above normal category for snow by about 5-10″.. If our La-Nina holds it’s current¬†strength or gets stronger, then this number will be very close, In my opinion.. If it weakens or we even get back into a Neutral¬† cycle, then this number will likely be much to high.. Like I said earlier I believe Nina will still be going strong and we will hold this number.. If you are from Chicago or Michigan then get ready, this IS your year!!! I truly believe the lake effect machine will pound Western Michigan and areas into northern Indiana early in the winter season.. Of course Chicago usually relies on separate storm systems rather than lake effect but I suspect there will plenty of¬† Big Storms that affect the region this year.. Ohio is¬† a much tougher one to nail down and I am quite honestly having problems figuring out how much you will receive..¬† but I am going to go with a normal snowfall season for most of Ohio with the northern county’s getting the brunt of the good winter..

Minnesota/Iowa/Wisconsin:¬† Just as the severe weather season has treated them badly, I expect Winter to be no different.. These are the big winners this winter in my opinion.. I really think you all will go very¬†cold and very¬†snowy very fast.. Again, this is all based on the Nina Pattern.. I expect all 3 states to be above average in the snowfall category with Minnesota and Wisconsin dominating the scene…..

All in all I believe this might be Michigan’s come back year in terms of snow… current pattern is setting up PERFECTLY for them and I will be watching very closely to see if this holds true into November…

As we get into September I will be updating this post to see if I still think everything is on track, but I really believe Indiana, Illinois, Michigan and points west from there will be the big winners this year in winter precip…. Now you all know how finicky these systems are and how the difference of 50 miles can mean Rain/Sleet/or Snow but I am not too concerned with it right now… We have lots of HOT summer to go.. yes I said Hot, August in my opinion is looking horrid in the temp’s… But, that, is another prediction.. ūüôā Enjoy everyone.. I will incorporate maps and graphics with my next update.. ūüôā

Matt the weather Bum………. OUT..

Posted by: rockster11 | November 22, 2009

An El Nino Winter=’s An El Headacheo for 3 months….

Hello Everyone… This is it.. This is my official winter forecast for the greater Central Indiana area for¬†the 2009-2010 season. :)…Let me first say that one thing you will always notice about me is I am HONEST. If I am wrong, I admit it.. I am not afraid to stick my neck out as to what I think will happen. “Most” (there are still a¬†select good ones left)¬†of our on air Tv personalities are just afraid these days IMHO… They rely too much on Computer models for their info… Don’t get me wrong, I use computer model’s but the sheer essence of gut instinct seems to be disappearing from today’s mainstream weather.. This is where I differ, I will use my gut, and if my gut is wrong I WILL admit it.

El Nino, simply put is an above average¬†warming of the western pacific waters… This warming pushes storm tracks usually to the far¬†southwest.. Those storms generally ride along the southern United States and Up the Eastern Seaboard.. For snow lovers in Indiana, a true by the Book El Nino generally isn’t favorable if you’re a snow lover… I am still not buying this scenario as I think El Nino will begin to fade around the end of December…But as this writing it is still strengthening.. I will stick to my guns though. ūüôā

Let me also talk about a “favorable” track for big snows… For big snows we need a lot¬†of things to come together, a favorable Jet Stream pattern, a Strong¬†Low¬†pressure system¬†that ejects from the south, and plenty of gulf moisture to feed the low, not to mention critical thickness temps that support snow throughout the entire upper levels of the atmosphere.. It can be 29 degrees on the ground but if we get a shallow layer of warm air aloft, then we can¬†get sleet/freezing rain.. The Key to good snow is no pesky what is called WAA¬†or Warm Air Advection.. This is what makes the actual low track SO important.. Every low has a warm front and a cold front associated with it, if you get a warm front out ahead of the ejecting low, that is where we get our Warm air Advection to occur…… A great low track for Central Indiana snows is usually a low that travels through Extreme Southern Indiana, or for the BIG STORMS even as far south as Southern Kentucky… the Heaviest snow falls within 100-¬†250 miles north and northwest of the actual¬†lowest pressure.. So you can do the math when you see the big “L’s” on your local weather forecast’s/maps… you must also remember, when you hear local meteo’s¬†say that the track of the Low means everything, they are RIGHT…. A shift of a Low Pressure track by as little as 50 miles, north or south can cause MAJOR implications on what type of precip¬†your area will¬†get.. It can truly be a beast sometimes to figure these things out.. But I will do my best this year ūüôā

Now on to the goody’s, what I think will occur….. The National weather service seems to think we are going to be on the dry side this winter and an “equal” chance of normal temps…. I won’t even get into what that means because¬†I think it is the silliest¬† forecasting tool¬†that I have ever seen… It basically means temps could either be above or below normal for the entire winter¬†(according to them) and precip¬†will be lacking, again for the entire winter… I am going to say up front that if this El Nino does continue to strengthen through January and February then our winter will be above normal on temps and below normal snowfall will occur, again if this is a ‘true by the book El Nino”….¬† I am now going to go through Each month Starting with December…

DECEMBER… This could be our month if you like snow… I really think we are going to go cold quickly and furiously. I am predicting temps to be slightly¬†below normal for this month and for snowfall to be right at normal. I think we will get 1 possibly 2 of our major storms in this month.. By major I mean an accumulating snow of more than 5 inches for a single event. I am going to put our December total snowfall at 13.6 inches

JANUARY… Traditionally our coldest month, and I don’t believe January will disappoint.. I will again put temperatures at “slightly below” normal for the month, but I believe we will start seeing more East coast runners and Appalachian runners in terms of storms (not favorable tracks for our area for big snows)… My Predicted snowfall total for the month of January is going to be 8.2 inches… Let me add that I believe a lot of our snow totals from this month will come from what is commonly referred to “Alberta Clippers”. These are fast racing storms that dart of out of¬† Canada and dump on average a 1-4 inch snowfall.. they can be stronger on occasions, but they usually move too fast to cause real high totals…

FEBRUARY…. This is where things get dicey for me… I think we are going to run into an ice problem for this month.. I believe temps in this month will moderate from normal to slightly above normal…Again, if we see a strengthening El-Nino then temps will be above normal… If we see our El Nino fade then Temps will be around normal.. Either way the concern for Ice Events is in my mind for this month. I believe our total snowfall in the month of February will be 8.6 inches…

¬†This puts us in a total of 30.4 inches for the winter… the average for the Indianapolis area is 27.0 inches so I am indeed calling for a “slightly above average precip” winter in terms of snow….

We will see how this all plays out as I am sticking my neck in the vise so to speak… If El Nino does remain and strengthen then my numbers will most likely be way off… Thats the fun in forecasting though!! Sorry for not using any graphical maps.. I think I explained what I needed to in words.. I am not a graphical map kind of guy, plus I just dont have the know how on how to make them… Enjoy the winter everyone!!! Whatever you wish for, I hope you get it.. ūüôā

Posted by: rockster11 | August 6, 2009

Heat lovers Rejoice!!!

I myself personally am not a heat and humidity lover, but I know alot of people are…. As I said in a previous blog, August IS going to in fact bite us in the butt…. what I thought was going to happen is going to happen starting Saturday… The Jet Stream that has been abnormally far south resembling a late spring time pattern, will finally flatten back out up across southern Canada… This will allow Heat and Humidity to stream in from the south..

Enjoy the Hot weather!! I know I won’t!!

Posted by: rockster11 | August 4, 2009

Storms quickly racing across Illinois…

Hey all… Looks like we may have some action racing this way We are currently under a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH until 4 p.m this afternoon… I am a bit skeptical on if the current mesoscale complex in Illinois will keep its intensity to this area, but for the moment it is holding its own… Main threats will be the same cha cha cha that you are used to hearing, Large Hail, Damaging Wind, and extreme lightning… Heavy rain is also quite possible, especially if training sets up in this immediate area.. So far we have a warm front about 2 counties south of hamilton, storms are firing juuuuuust north of this front and are staying juuuuuuuust south of our area… If the warm front advances north by a county or two, we will be in the line for heavy rain… There are already numerous flooding problems down south in counties like Brown…

All in All it’s going to be a cloudy, rainy day… Enjoy!!!

Posted by: rockster11 | July 28, 2009

What a cool summer!

Hello everyone.. I will do my best to post to this blog at least once a week, more if the weather warrants… Being someone who can’t stand extreme heat and humidity, this summer has been a dream for me!! For others however, who love the heat, you have all been greatly robbed.. Have no fear I believe in August we will get some “payback”…..

Let me explain to you in laymans terms what has happend to cause this cool summer.. During a normal Summer, the Jet Stream usually runs in a flat line up in Canada. However, this year the Jet Stream is running straight through the mid US… This is allowing a “ferris wheel effect” of¬† upper level troughs to run abnormally south bringing us storm systems followed by persistant cooler air reinforcements… Basically what¬†it boils down to is if the Jet continues to ride right through our area without retreating north, then the cool pattern will persist… I believe that the jet will start retreating into Canada¬†in August, allowing¬†for some hotter temps to be the rule…

Some weather offices have already put out their winter outlooks. I am a bit opinionated when it comes to long range forecasting (greater than two weeks out) These forecasts are to taken with a grain of salt because of the current pattern we are in suggests an El Nino has us in its grip… But most forecasts “so far” point to a less snowy winter for this area and perhaps a milder than normal winter… Again, I DON’T recommend taking these long range forecasts you see like the gospel… Too much can happen and I’ve seen pattern changes that completely turn the above said forecast into falsehoods….

Sorry for the lack of posting but I will now start updating once a week, and if the weather warrants I will post more!! Enjoy the rest of our summer, I’m ready for snow!!!!

Posted by: rockster11 | February 16, 2009

Welcome to my Weather blog!!

Hello everyone.. Welcome to the launch of my weather blog! I have been an avid follower of severe weather, and extreme winter events since I was a teenager.. I have many tools at my disposal including, all of the NWS data, The US, European, Canadian, and Japanese models, and many other tools that I hope to utilize for the rest of this winter season, along with the upcoming severe season… I hope you bookmark this page and stick around, during times of extreme weather events I will do my best to keep you abreast and “afloat” so to speak, of what all of us deal with every day… Here is the quote I live by:

Everyone on the planet HAS to deal with the weather, so you might as well learn a little about it!!!

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